Is solar worth it in 2026?
For most of the US, yes — but not everywhere, and not for the reason people think. Across the 788 cities we measured, solar pays for itself in under 10 years in 346 of them and takes more than 15 in 83. Your electricity rate matters more than how sunny it is.
The honest version
Solar is a prepayment on 25 years of electricity. Whether that is a good deal depends on three things, in this order: what you currently pay per kWh, what your utility pays for exported power, and how much sun your roof actually gets after shading. Panel brand and efficiency barely register.
Where it pays fastest
| City | Sun hrs/yr | Rate | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu, HI | 1,787 | 42.1¢ | 3.1 yrs |
| Lihue, HI | 1,777 | 42.1¢ | 3.2 yrs |
| Kahului, HI | 1,627 | 42.1¢ | 3.5 yrs |
| Hilo, HI | 1,510 | 42.1¢ | 3.8 yrs |
| Kailua-Kona, HI | 1,253 | 42.1¢ | 4.5 yrs |
| Quincy, MA | 1,521 | 30.1¢ | 5.1 yrs |
Notice how many of these are not the sunniest places. They are the expensive-electricity places. Every kWh your panels make is a kWh you do not buy at that high rate.
Where it pays slowest
| City | Sun hrs/yr | Rate | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gatineau, QC | 1,291 | 7.9¢ | 33.3 yrs |
| Levis, QC | 1,326 | 7.9¢ | 32.1 yrs |
| Trois-Rivières, QC | 1,347 | 7.9¢ | 31.9 yrs |
| Drummondville, QC | 1,371 | 7.9¢ | 31.8 yrs |
| Longueuil, QC | 1,367 | 7.9¢ | 31.8 yrs |
| Terrebonne, QC | 1,380 | 7.9¢ | 31.7 yrs |
When solar is genuinely NOT worth it
- Your roof needs replacing within 10 years. Do the roof first, or pay $2,000–5,000 later to remove and refit the array.
- Heavy shading you cannot remove. Shade costs more output than any other factor.
- You are moving within about 5 years. Solar generally adds value, but rarely all of what you paid, and not quickly.
- Cheap electricity and poor export rates together. The worst combination — low savings per kWh and little for what you export.
- You cannot use the tax credit. It offsets tax owed. Low tax liability means the effective discount is smaller than advertised. How the credit works →
The middle case, which is most people
A typical result is our median city, Spartanburg, at a 10.8-year payback. That means roughly 14 years of near-free electricity afterwards. It is a decent, unspectacular return — closer to a bond than a windfall, and considerably better than the same money in a savings account over the same period.
What changes the answer in your favour
- Get three quotes. The spread on identical systems is routinely 30–40%. This is the single biggest lever you control. What to ask →
- Size to your usage, not your roof. Oversized systems have markedly worse payback.
- Check your net metering tariff before signing. Why it dominates the maths →
- Shift usage into daylight hours. Free, and it directly increases what your panels are worth.
Check your own roof rather than trusting an average →
What this looks like in real cities
Measured rooftop data, spanning the range from fastest to slowest payback we have found:
| City | Sun hrs/yr | Rate | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu, HI | 1,787 | 42.1¢ | 3.1 yrs |
| Killeen, TX | 1,783 | 15.1¢ | 8.8 yrs |
| Winchester, VA | 1,513 | 14.2¢ | 10.9 yrs |
| Blackpool, North West | 1,004 | 26.1¢ | 12.9 yrs |
| Gatineau, QC | 1,291 | 7.9¢ | 33.3 yrs |
Frequently asked
Is solar still worth it without the tax credit?
Often, but the case tightens considerably. Removing 30% of the net cost pushes payback out by several years, so it depends heavily on your electricity rate. In expensive-power regions solar still pays; where power is cheap, the credit is frequently what made the numbers work at all.
Does solar increase home value?
Owned systems generally help; leased ones often do not, since a buyer inherits an obligation rather than an asset. The size of the uplift varies widely by market and is difficult to predict, so treat it as upside rather than building it into your payback calculation.
Is it better to wait for cheaper panels?
Usually not. Prices fall slowly now, and every year you wait is a year of electricity bills you could have avoided. Hardware is already a minority of the total cost, so further panel price drops move the final quote less than people expect. Incentives are more likely to shrink.
Related guides
General information, updated 2026-08-22. Not financial, tax or engineering advice.